2025: Optimism about Big Deals Cools for Law Firms, So What about All Those New Hires?

 M&A is a lucrative practice for law firms. Bloomberg Law documents the five major players in that category in 2024:

"Kirkland topped rivals Latham & Watkins ($367 billion), Skadden Arps Slate Meagher & Flom ($361 billion), Freshfields ($264 billion), and Paul Weiss Rifkind Wharton & Garrison ($262 billion)."

The expectation was that there would be a boom in 2025. That assumption is now in play.

What's driving the falloff in optimism are the actual numbers. Based on the Financial Times report, Skynews notes a slow start to dealmaking so far in 2025:

"The overall number of US mergers and acquisitions collapsed nearly 30 per cent in January to 873 deals compared with a year ago, the lowest level since 2015, according to LSEG data. In dollar terms, deal activity fell 18 per cent compared with a year ago." 

The sources of the disappointment include:

Overall volatility which scares business, delaying decision-making

Anxiety about the new administration's economic and trade policies 

Little hope for further cuts in interest rates in the near term.

Meanwhile, that means new hires at law firms, along with other junior lawyers, could be slow. Slow means employment insecurity. The game is about a quota for billable hours. Already the professional anonymous networks Reddit and Fishbowl chronicle concern among some about a slow January. A few, though, have been slammed to manage the M&A proposals before the rules change. 

In general, especially given the terminations of lawyers in federal government, there's a glut of young lawyers. In 2023 the federal government had hired 1,000 newly minted JDs. That surplus could bulge. The JD Class of 2025 could have it tough sledding landing that first job. Could we be re-entering the employment crisis of 2008 - 2009? 

In my intuitive coaching, across sectors the primary challenge is to be hired. If you have a job you could have a sense of financial security. But if not, it's increasingly difficult to get back in. That's why there's a surge of interest in starting your own small business. In April I'm delivering a webinar on the nuts and bolts of entrepreneurship. 

UPDATE:

According to US Labor Dept, the US legal sector lost 4,400 jobs in January 2025. Here are details from the ABA Journal.

As an intuitive career coach/tarot reader I uncover the opportunities/obstacles in your earning power that others miss. Free confidential consultation. If we work together, fees are custom-made for your budget. For an appointment: contact Jane Genova (text/phone 203-468-8579, janegenova374@gmail.com). In-person and remote.