Complete the College Degree? What You're Majoring in Is Structurally Shrinking, So ...
Some parents, once proud their offspring is doing well in college, now are in a panic.
What is being majored in is a field that is structurally contracting. Sure, there are some jobs but not many and midlevels are being forced out. So, the question is: Should the degree be completed? That's what they ask me.
Well, that depends. Since there is already a loss of faith in degree-getting the answer is not going to be to switch majors. At least, not in the situations I am called upon to review.
Essentially these factors are critical in the decision making about continuing with college:
How far along is the student and how much money would still have to be invested to complete the degree?
If it's in the early stages, as the old saying goes, that's like throwing good money after bad. One parent of a freshman plans to have the son transfer to a certification program at the community college at the end of the year. Therefore, in the future, if the young adult wants to add on to credentials an official BA or BS that's doable.
If it unlocks other kinds of opportunities.
For example, would a degree open up preferential treatment in applying to the military, government jobs, even the trades such as being mentored for a management slot? The popular job of teaching English in China or Korea usually requires an undergraduate degree. A number of those I coached started out their careers that way.
Without any clear direction.
Depending on how much the total nut for tuition/living expenses is, it could represent a hedge to get the degree for future degrees in healthcare, law, management consulting, nonprofit leadership, teaching or more.
However, some of those sectors are themselves vulnerable to contraction. For instance, in practicing law both law firms Paul, Weiss and Sullivan and Cromwell sketched out how career paths in the legal sector could and probably will implode. Because of AI, demand will plummet for junior lawyers. Also because of AI, a number of practices could evolve into commodities.
With fewer births the demand for teachers, K through 12, could be dismal. Already in higher education there are layoffs, even of tenured faculty.
Entrepreneurial options?
It is well known that Bill Gates and Sam Altman quit undergraduate studies to found enterprises. Many young people want to do that any way. Why not try that out now? They can complete the semester they're in currently and the door would be open later to return if a decree proves useful.
Also, it's necessary to separate out the financial, social and emotional aspects of this decision. The ROI in terms of income from a traditional career path seems lousy. But the social context such as meeting people from all parts of society and the world and experimenting with a range of personas could be useful for a career in sales or politics.
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