Nothing Fails Like Success: The NFL, Big Law and More

Here we are in the volatile and uncertain 2026. We wonder what - be it a dominant institution or powerful individual - will survive for the next 10, 20 or 30 years. 

Back in the early 1980s some management consultants looked into that and became famous. Who in business doesn't know the name Tom Peters. They published their findings as the book "In Search of Excellence." Among the companies which didn't make it was Wang Laboratories (it remained a closed system, sticking with stand-alone word processing as the world was moving toward PC). On a downward trajectory was IBM (which only recently regained its former aura). To duck that fate, the consultants mandated sticking to the knitting, staying close to the customer, being values-oriented and more.

Well, more recently Chuck Klosterman has applied that age-old reality - nothing fails like success - to the NFL. In his provocative book "Football" he explains how the business will sour. 

The drivers range from owners/players fighting over revenue to broadcast media/advertisers pushing back on the high price of being in the loop. But, Brad Karp at Paul, Weiss who is involved with representing the NFL doesn't have to worry just yet. Kloseterman envisions this scenario playing out in 30 to 40 years. But given the overall boredom of the Super Bowl 60 and the commercials I reduce that down to 20 years.

Well, at Bloomberg Law, journalist Roy Strom extends this kind of analysis of a downward trajectory to Big Law. Obviously, right now it is riding high. Billing per hour has reached more than $4k. Demand is growing in these confusing times. Just today those seasoned lawyers at large law firms are receiving calls from nervous clients needing guidance since the Trump tariffs have been rules illegal.

But, probably few in Big Law are considering the dire implications of nothing fails like success. They should.

Profit growth - and that is what keeps stars staying with the firm - is primarily coming from constantly raising fees. Of course, clients balk some. However, most have no choice but to go with a proven entity in categories in which they have high-stakes legal issues. For now.

But, Strom argues that's not sustainable:

"Big Law’s prevailing business model must be near the peak of its financial success. Or at the very least, that such heady growth won’t continue."

Without the heady growth to continue to increase Profits Per Equity Partners, the key moving parts of the business - star partners - will leave. Some firms will actually go out of business, as Paul Weiss' Brad Karp predicted in a Bloomberg Law interview back in 2021. Maybe many will tank if upstart competition manages to create powerhouse brandnames in its specialized practices and charge less. That's exactly how upstarts Microsoft and Apple brought IBM to its knees in the early 1990s. 

Big Law, as we've known it, might no longer exist. 

Neither might much of academia. Apollo CEO Mark Rowan is coordinating with the Trump administration to reform higher education. But public opinion isn't on the side of "saving" any of the colleges or universities. Once hailed as a hero for keeping Bard rolling its president Leon Botstein is being investigated by law firm Wilmer Hale for his fundraising. Among the donors were Jeffrey Epstein and Leon Black.

Also going could be the ethos of the Protestant Ethic. That is developing our identity through work and putting trust in working hard. With AI there could be less and less work. The Epstein files exposed working hard isn't necessarily how the top tier achieves extreme success. However, attending dinners with professionals entirely full of themselves might be considered hard work.

In my coaching, like a Greek Chorus, I warn the high-flyers that the game is in the now. They have to pay attention to all factors that could be changing, threatening the business as well as their personal brand. 

Success is a mental game. Failure comes from being done in by the “committee” in your head.

Together, we liberate your thinking. Then we change your story. And, unleash success. Meanwhile, we focus on bringing in income. That puts you in a position of strength.

Intuitive Coaching. Special expertise with transitions, becoming a solopreneur and aging. Psychic/tarot readings, upon request. Complimentary consultation with Jane Genova (Text 203-468-8579, janegenova374@gmail.com). Yes, test out the chemistry. Zero risk.

Don’t give up before the miracle.

 


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