Prediction Markets Pushing Wall Street and More into Oblivion

It was predictable - to use that current wealth-creation term - that some youth on Wall Street would be featured in Interview Magazine without their employers' permission. Essentially the four were positioned and packaged as lads about town. They were from Goldman Sachs, Barclays and PwC. Not at all the right image for buttoned-down institutions handling global funds. 

What they might have sensed is that they no longer had to accept the hazing culture of Wall Street. That ranges from impossible hours to top-down authority. Now, you bet, there are options to making it big. One lad - Demarre Johnson - is already gone from PwC. Details not disclosed. But I have a hunch Johnson isn't skipping a beat in his journey to become wealthy.

Things have changed a lot since David Solomon started out. Wall Street could be forced into oblivion.

See, among the seductive emerging career options is the prediction markets or what's known as the "collective intelligence." Back when the internet was becoming standard that force field was known as the "wisdom of crowds."

It is not hyperbolic to decare prediction platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, Lightcone Labs and others being developed the new markets. They could have the scope of commodity markets, foreign exchange, derivatives, equities, bonds. In addition, as Zoe Bernard points out in the March edition of Vanity Fair, they could create an insurance mechanism where that is unavailable/too expensive, set up innovative ways to govern and/or provide truth when we no longer trust thought leaders, religion, media, business or the legal system.

Prediction markets can also restore faith in meritocracy. This is at a time when the Epstein files disclosed how the privileged conduct business. How shut out the rest of us are. All that makes you want to, as in China, just do a "lying flat." That is, stop striving to get ahead. 

Well, smart focused folks with valuable niche information and the stomach to take risk can be compensated with wealth, influence and power. The hell with working for the man. Bernard introduces several who lucked out in their predictions as well as sizes up the potential in this career path.

The newness of prediction markets also opens fresh starts to those who might have screwed up or who have been on the wrong side of the law of supply and demand. As for the latter, most of those laid off have unique niche knowledge. Let them start wagering that small time. Soon enough it's like a job. They can also establish their own prediction-market platform.

This attractive option for earning a living also brings clarity to the issue of investing in matriculating for advanced degrees. For a long time The Wall Street Journal has been campaigning against them. Unemployed come to me for coaching, stunned their two MAs aren't getting them anything. I hate to break the news that those degrees actually could be a liability.

Seniors in college (who might have already realized even that BA/BS degree has low ROI) can investigate the whole structure of prediction markets for an entry point. Instead of law, graduate or business school.

If law partner at Paul, Weiss Brad Karp were a college senior today he might have not gone into the family business of practicing law and attended Harvard Law School. Back then he was obsessed with politics. Currently the young Karp could make it big wagering on political odds.

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