Posts

Showing posts from May, 2025

Takeaways from Mary Meeker's Blockbuster Slideshow and More - Impact of AI Is Not Hype

  Once titled "Queen of the Internet," Mary Meeker is creating her space as the thought leader on Artificial Intelligence.  Her perspective is through the lens of being a founder of venture capital firm Bond. Previously she had been with VC player Kleiner Perkins.  Spoiler Alert: Meeker assesses that AI is not yet a money-maker. Many businesses could simply not reach even a breakeven point. However, it is a disruptor. And the level of that disruption is "unprecedented."  Meeker uses that term 51 times in her 340 page trends slideshow. This is the first trends report slideshow she had presented since 2019.  Here you can retrieve the slideshow  and probably come to agree that its impacts are, yes, unprecedented. That's primarily because of its widespread and rapid adoption. For example, in 17 months OpenAI's ChatGPT acquired 800 million users. Just as quickly "ChatGPT" became a verb, just as "Google" had. I directed a client: "ChatGPT ...

Law Firms & Flat Fees: Model Makes No Sense for All Those Junior Associates

  With the billable hour, the more associates laboring on a litigation/transactional matter, the more the revenue for the law firm.  Not so with flat fees. The model is different. The more associates who are looped in, the greater the possibility for reduced revenue per lawyer. That threatens the most important metric in large law firms: Profits Per Equity Partner. The flat-fee model, documents Bloomberg Law , emerges as a result of what generative AI can already get done. That's the pattern of doing more with less. At the low-end the more with less human input are the grunt tasks of research, document review and simple contracts. At the level of higher value tasks A&O Shearman's AI app, developed with Harvey, performs partner-type analysis in practices ranging from antitrust to cybersecurity. Cleary, which acquired an AI firm, now integrates AI into all operations.  Junior lawyers could be on short time. Entry-level ones could encounter decreasing demand.  It's ...

Shaming, Trying to Poach Talent from Hand Feeding You - Mosaic Search Founder Bryson Malcolm & Goodwin's Response

 A number of vendors to businesses (and individuals) like myself are bug-eyed following the developing situation between law firm Goodwin and Mosaic Search founder Bryson Malcolm. Never since launching my first boutique in 1987 have I encountered an unraveling like this. As Bloomberg Law documents Goodwin had been a client of that recruiter. The latter didn't approve of the law firm's response of the Equal Employment Commission's investigation. Obviously, he felt strongly about the matter - enough to post on LinkedIn that the action was shameful. On the same day Malcolm also emailed a Goodwin associate, essentially offering to place them outside the firm. Beyond strange. This is not only biting the hand that feeds you. It is also attempting to poach talent from a client. How unethical. Maybe illegal, depending on the terms and conditions of the contract with Goodwin.  Of course, an option was to send a confidential letter to Goodwin, requesting to be released from the co...

Boomers, Rollercoaster Speeded Up

  Maybe the meme of our times is: Don't get smug about your money. With tariffs off we Boomers were feeling quite pleased with our investing selves. Then this: Tariffs are back on, at least for a while. Bloomberg Law reports: "A federal appeals court offered President  Donald Trump a temporary reprieve from a ruling threatening to throw out the bulk of his sweeping tariff agenda, offering at least some hope to a White House now facing substantial new restrictions on its effort to rewrite the global trading order." CNBC notes that right now futures remain unchanged. But last night CNBC reported that futures were up 500. Most of today the Dow was down but it finally closed up. Not a surge but we'll take the 117. Where was the 500? So, we don't know really what to expect for our investments tomorrow or in June.  As expected, my financial advisor contacted me if I had any questions about the volatility. I call it the "rollercoaster." What can he tell me? W...

McDonald's: Social Club for Over-65

  In driving from west to the midwest I noticed this: The local McDonald's are jam-packed, especially in the early morning, with the over-65. Mostly men. They cluster into groups of five to eight. Sometimes a couple drifts in. They usually greet the tribe and then sit elsewhere. Other locals know  those tables belong to them, during those hours. Yes, hours.  Despite all the reported angst about running out of money through living too long, the groups exude contentment. Lots of loud laughing.  This is the social club they can afford. Their wives, if still alive, don't mind (they told me) because alcohol isn't served. Everyone, from the manager to the perky staff behind the register, knows their name. No one gives them a dirty look to free up a table. In terms of snippets of Americana, McDonald's is evolving into a bridge from the structure of work to the certainty of being able to sit across from caring friends.  In coaching, those still working tell me how much ...

Boomer Disappointment: Dow Didn't Surge

 We were told that, at least for now, our troubles were over. The Court of International Trade had ruled the Trump administration tariffs illegal. Around 9 PM New York time last night futures were up 500. Now this: The Dow is down.  Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Index: DJI Compare 42,089.85 USD ▼  -8.85 (-0.021%) today   UPDATE:   Things fell off more.  Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Index: DJI Compare 41,927.55 USD ▼  -171.15 (-0.41%) today May 29, 12:07 PM EDT  ·  Market Open

Sign of AI Times: Law Firm Entry Level Pay Flat Since 2023

  Talent. Big Law used to go in search of it. It still does. But at the partner level. Poaching is frenzied.  But when it comes to hiring those right out of law school the wooing process has cooled. No surprise, the NALP documents that the salary for those jobs has remained the same since 2023.  Many of those associates do tasks which AI can perform more accurately and faster. Those include research, document review and simple contracts. Actually, chair of Paul Weiss Brad Karp has even gone public with this possible scenario: AI could eliminate some junior associate jobs. Cleary, which acquired an AI firm, is having AI integrated in all moving parts.  This aligns with what is happening in myriad sectors: Entry-level jobs are disappearing. The cruel buzz phrase is: Knowledge work isn't welcoming juniors. Another way of putting is that the first rung in the ladder is being cut off. That not only impacts new college graduates. Seasoned professionals needing to change la...

AI - Would Don Draper from "Mad Men" Get Laid Off from the Ad Agency?

 Whose projection to believe?  OpenAI's Sam Altman predicts AI will wipe out 95% of agency work.  For example, it can perform the creative tasks of designing logos and online advertising, plus even produce movies. The Don Drapers from "Mad Men" could find themselves out of the business. And, according to Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei they won't have many other white collar type jobs in order to begin all over again. AI will eliminate them also by closing off entry-level positions. Already knowledge work isn't welcoming juniors.  In contrast the ad agency folks predict a new golden age. AI tools enhance their powers. They can assign them all types of tasks to, for instance, bring the art of the pitch to a whole new level. Maybe. But how much manpower will be needed to operate the moving parts of this AI-driven world? Overall, in content creation, what we see with communications businesses such as Contently is probably the elimination of the huge number of hands-on cre...

Boomers, Maybe Our Rollercoaster Ride Is Over, For a While - Court Strikes Down Tariffs

  The global mood is jolly enough to make stock markets soar. Here in the US, as of about 9 PM New York time, futures are up 400. The headline in the Daily Mail reads: "Trump's tariffs dealt catastrophic blow as judge rules worldwide trade levies 'illegal'" Here's what happened. As you might recall a number of Democrat-led states and groups of small businesses filed lawsuits. They contended that US President Donald Trump has relied on emergency powers to make a rationale for the levies. Well, a panel at the New York-based Court of International Trade sided with the plaintiffs.  Boomers can get off the rollercoaster in their preoccupation with investments. Those might have to last into the 90s and beyond. Dick Van Dyke is 99. But the reprieve could be temporary. President Trump intends to appeal the ruling. He contends unelected judges can't be messing with what it takes to make America great again. Watchers project this could wind up in the US Supreme Cour...

Changing Lanes? Maybe Not

  In my coaching, some new clients are still focusing on a career shift because they want one. Not because their current one has run out road. Not realistic. On Reddit Jobs , here's an on-the-money observation: "In today's job market you can't afford to switch careers and start from zero" Not only are there are fewer entry-level positions. Soon enough there may be none. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei projects AI will wipe out most of those.   Old by now was the prediction by Paul Weiss chair Brad Karp that AI could eliminate the demand for some junior lawyers. Ironically on professional anonymous networks such as Reddit Consulting there's still chatter about exiting managing consulting because they no longer like it and opting into matriculating at law school. Me? I transitioned from content-creation to two other career paths because AI and more were eating my lunch, dinner and breakfast. But for years I had been developing those fields of expertise as sidelines....

AI: Is It a "Person" in Terms of the Legal System

This question is not from a sci-fi novel or film: Should AI be granted the legal status of "person?" In the court of law, it would have the rights and responsibilities of you and me. For example, AI could be a legal actor in contracts (think smart contracts on blockchain), have ownership of property and much more. Bloomberg Law reports:  "AI systems aren’t legal persons, but they’re beginning to behave like them. They make decisions, execute agreements, and act independently of their creators. Yet when things go wrong, the law lacks clarity about who’s accountable."  For example, if AI makes a big mistake in a commercial transaction or goes out of control and authorizes the destruction of thousands of human beings and has been granted legal personhood, does that let his creators and "owners" off the hook legally? Yeah, blame AI and bring it into the woodshed for a spanking and more. Organizations such as Anthropic and OpenAI would bear no civil or crimina...

Believe It Or Not: There Are Still Generative AI "Have Nots"

  Of course, it's the ethical responsibility of career coaches such as myself to ask: How has generative AI already impacted your work or, the shift in career paths you intend to make? A stunner: There still exist those who we might classify as Gen AI "have nots." That disruptor for careers as well as how it factors into investing in degrees hasn't been on their radar.  For example, a new client enthusiastically informed me that she has purchased books to prepare for the LSAT. She has had it with being in social work.  How could a person with that much drive miss all the information about how much practicing law has already been impacted by Gen AI? Cleary indicates that AI now factors into everything. A&O Shearman, in conjunction with Harvey, has developed an AI app that performs partner-level analysis in practices ranging from antitrust to cybersecurity. Paul Weiss chair Brad Karp went on record projecting that AI could eliminate some junior lawyer jobs. Meanwhil...

Rollercoaster Continues for Boomers

  It's the tariffs, stupid. That concept, borrowed from James Carville's advice to Bill Clinton during the first run for US President and repackaged, sums up much of the rollercoaster movement of the Dow. Now that President Donald Trump issued a 90-backoff on EU tariffs, Dow futures are up 400. The fear clawing at the lifestyles of boomers is the fear of running out of money. It is no longer uncommon for the aging to make it beyond the late 80s into the 90s. Dick Van Dyke is 99.  Rattled by the uncertainty? Faith-based Career Coaching. Special expertise with transitions, reskilling and aging. Psychic/tarot readings, upon request. Complimentary consultation with Jane Genova (Text 203-468-8579, janegenova374@gmail.com ). Yes, test out the chemistry.

Frugal Is Fashionable - The Two Americas

Image
  More than 60 percent of those in America believe that frugal is smart. And it doesn't mean that we're "cheap." "BARGAINS" AS MEANINGLESS So, those selling whatever will have to retrofit the positioning and packaging if they're going to be effective in influencing our purchasing journey. The noise about Memorial Day discounts, for example, becomes sound we can easily screen out. The same for all those long-weekend yard sales. Rock-bottom pricing for "good stuff" is meaningless if the items aren't totally necessary for how we live.  The amazing part of this development - that is, frugal as fashionable - is that we no longer care what the other 40 percent think of us.  THE TWO AMERICAS Yes, there has evolved two Americas. MINIMALISM There's the America which has embraced minimalism. For us transportation means getting from Point A to Point B. Not status. Not even the beauty of styling. We don't explain or apologize for tooling aroun...

Slow News Day Softens Blow of Four High-Profile Partners Exiting Paul Weiss

  With Big Law being a business (no longer a profession) partners come and partners go. And with the fallout from the Trump administration's attack on law firms, more partners are coming and more partners are going.  Since today was a slow news day (some are enjoying a four-day weekend) the blow was softened about four prominent partners exiting Paul Weiss. It has been among the nine law firms negotiating deals with the administration.  Those partners are Karen Dunn, Jeanne Rhee, Jessica Phillips and William Isaacson. Politico presents their positions within Paul Weiss and association with progressive issues. The four are joining together to start their own law firm.  Of them Dunn has the highest profile for working with Democrat heavyweights. For example, before becoming a lawyer she had handled media for Hillary Clinton. More recently she prepped Kamala Harris for the Presidential debate. In addition, Dunn specializes in tech litigation. Paul Weiss had poached her...

Aura, Who's Got It? Well, That Depends

  Reddit plays with the concept of who has an aura when entering the room.  What's thrown out there initially is it's the senior partner at a law firm. But that's countered with this reality: A demanding client can immediately deflate that aura. Put the two in the same room and observe. Also, what about the entry-level whose parents are both heavyweights in the profession. There too will be an aura as that young professional strides through the corridors.  What comes out of the discussion is that power determines aura. It's not a stand-alone attribute. Those with the most power in a context will possess the aura. The others in that context will just be there, no aura.  Undone by the uncertainty? Faith-based Career Coaching. Special expertise with transitions, reskilling and aging. Complimentary consultation with Jane Genova (Text 203-468-8579, janegenova374@gmail.com).

When You've Invested So Much in a Career Path - Harvard International Students, Like Too Many Knowledge Workers, Are Undone

  About a fourth of Harvard student body is made of international students. Now, the Trump administration announced that Harvard's right to enroll international students had been revoked and current students would have to transfer elsewhere. Up in the air is the question if those who assumed they would be receiving a degree this graduation will be able to do so.  Of course, everyone in that orbit at Harvard is in upheaval. A core emotion among the students, reports The New York Times , is: "... students [are] overwhelmed ... by the idea of leaving a place where they had invested so much." It requires a lot of heavy lifting to get into Harvard and then achieve there, amid the pressure of its powerful mystique.  This replicates the interior shift taking place among knowledge workers in so many sectors. It's the exception: Those who have invested so heavily in a career path who haven't been forced out or in high angst that the end is near. The majority of the rest ha...

Boomers Might Not Enter Long Weekend Happy - Should We Cancel Day Trips?

There have been recent bad days for the Dow. Now, CNBC informs us that futures are little changed: "Stock futures were little changed on Thursday night, as investors continue to evaluate the effect of higher U.S. Treasury yields on the economy." So that means we boomers don't go into the long weekend with peace of mind.  Actually, some of us are wondering if we can even risk the expense of the day trips. When the Dow went on the rollercoaster for too many there was an end to the dream of returning to visit Europe, like we had in gap years from college or graduation school.  The advice I give to boomers still working is to continue that. It is increasingly difficult to unretire after leaving the workforce. Both AI and the hiring-systems-on-hold have made it almost impossible to jump back in. The most promising way to earn income again from work is to launch a small business.  Scared by the uncertainty? Faith-based Career Coaching. Special expertise with transitions, resk...

End of the Cute $2.99 Pricing

  Already a dollar store here in Southeastern  Arizona has the option to "round off to five cents" the sales price. That's in preparation for the end of the penny coin denomination in the US. Bloomberg Law reports: "The US Treasury will stop minting pennies within the next month, leading to shortages at cash registers as soon as January and leaving little time for state tax administrators to respond to a heap of potential problem..." So, that all-too-cute cringey sales gimmick of pricing merchandise at $2.99 will have to go the way of the iPhone in Generative AI time.  Unfortunately for us who have saved our pennies, literally not metaphorically, they probably have no value to collectors. There are exceptions, of course.  Youth will probably wonder about phrases like "putting pennies" on the eyes of the dead and "a penny for your thoughts." Overall it's a difficult time in American life to be foisted on us yet another change we didn'...

The Frank Hague Political Machine - Fear as Protective Coloring

  "I am the law," Frank Hague is reported to have said.  Essentially, as one of those urban political machine bosses before the post-war economic boom kicked in, Hague dominated just about every institution. Likely that could have included how law was dished out. Because machines operate in a stealth mode, we'll never know the full extent of his power and influence.  The protective coloring we took on was fear. That manifested itself through conformity. And that signaled compliance. The meme really was: You can't fight City Hall.  "They" would be watching you. I understand totally and have deep empathy for the nine large law firms which entered into dealmaking with the Trump administration. They range from Paul Weiss to Simpson. You bet, the nine are being watched.  Even as a child I observed what happened to the non-compliant. A closed system, there were no second chances.  Of course, there were rewards for loyalty. Active party members could go to the p...

Big Law: Darkness Falls on Both Dealmaking Firms and the Resistance

  The fear of losing clients as a result of the Executive Orders or the threat of them dominated both those firms which cut deals with the Trump administration and the ones which filed lawsuits challenging EOs' legality. Among the nine negotiators have been Paul Weiss, Skadden and Latham. The resistance includes Perkins Coie, Jenner & Block and Wilmer Cutler.  Well, Law360, posts Reddit Big Law , found that both groups have experienced client loss. So far that numbers 19. Perkins Coie has been hit with seven. Some of those are government contractors such as Honeywell. Obviously they don't want to risk incurring the ire of the administration. Part of the client defections may be the result of normal churn. That has become prevalent because no longer do clients and law firms, as it might be said, marry for life.  How we might size up the client losses which result from the administration's targeting large law firms is this: When it comes to the issue of preserving accou...

AI Already Standard in PR Sector

 Once a glamour field in which creativity is saluted, the public relations sector could become just another business overtaken by AI.  The Wall Street Journal documents that just about every PR agency has adopted AI. Some even have developed proprietary tools. The human input, including the creativity, can often be done by an AI app. For example, AI can actually connect the dots and come up with unique pitches. However, they have to be overseen by humans. But doing that only requires a small number of humans. Not masses of creatives.   In addition, AI can automate tedious time-consuming tasks. WSJ notes: "When a client is the subject of negative headlines, the PR firm Golin can use AI to track more real-time responses and test potential responses on synthetic focus groups created by large language models ..." Therefore, it's predictable that professional anonymous networks such as Fishbowl PR and Reddit PR capture the despair of those who can't land entry-level posi...

Can This Generation Make It to 90, 100 or More?

  Boomers stare into the abyss. Dow futures plunge 400 points. The housing market has essentially crashed. And tariff-generated price increases throw a wrench in every day budgeting. Can the generation make it to 90, 100 or more? UPDATE: Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Index: DJI Compare 42,333.60 USD ▼  -343.64 (-0.81%) today May 21, 9:39 AM EDT  ·  Market Open Scared by the uncertainty? Faith-based Coaching. Special expertise with transitions, reskilling and aging. Complimentary consultation with Jane Genova (Text 203-468-8579, janegenova374@gmail.com). UPDATE: Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI: ^DJI 42,032.16 -645.08  (-1.51%) As of Wed. May 21, 2025 1:41 PM EDT · Free Realtime Quote (USD) · Market open

Boomer Mindset: It Could Be Worse

  42,777.33 USD ▼  -14.74 (-0.034%) today May 20, 9:31 AM EDT  ·  Market Open Scared by the uncertainty? Faith-based Coaching. Special expertise with transitions, reskilling and aging. Complimentary consultation with Jane Genova (Text 203-468-8579, janegenova374@gmail.com).

Want to Change the World? Become a MInister, Not a Lawyer

  From the middle of the 20th century to the time before the Trump administration, lawyers were in the front lines of bringing about progressive reforms. Lawyer as Change Agent That filtered down to the grassroots as we boomers, for example, joined in lawyer Ralph Nader's campaign for consumer rights. One way was through the Nader Raiders (which might be thought of a prototype for the current Mystery Shoppers). Another was becoming educated in DIY lobbying for transparency in commercial transactions. Elite law firms such as Paul Weiss through pro bono assignments/thought leadership and Skadden through fellowships moved the dial on social justice. The Innocence Project, which freed the wrongly convicted from prison, provided insight into the flaws of the legal system.  Forever it seems, the idealistic I coached set their minds on law school in order to have a shot at macro reforms such as softening capitalism and making access to quality healthcare a right. Now, the power and i...

Gloom in Boomerville: Will Monday Be Bad?

We boomers have come to expect good news from the Dow Jones. Now, we anticipate that Monday will deliver bad news.  We follow futures like a hawk. CNBC reports:  "Stock futures fell Sunday evening as investors responded to Moody’s downgrade of the U.S.′ credit rating" Will this set the Dow into a downward trajectory? Things in our boomer lives are moving in the direction of the possibility of living to 100 or more. The challenge is making our money last that long. Unretiring is becoming less an option for most. There just aren't that many jobs around anymore. So, income from investments have become "it."  Takeaway: If you're still working, stay working. Once you stop you become rusty in everything from job search to being able to cope with the realities of the 2025 workplace. Scared by the uncertainty? Special expertise with transitions, reskilling and startups. Complimentary consultation with Intuitive Coach Jane Genova (Text 203-468-8579, janegenova374@...

The Resistance Turns to Satire in Above the Law

  Above the Law is so back. It has become the go-to for lawyers enraged about the deals transacted with the Trump administration by nine Big Law firms. ATL has returned to its once-signature snark. Humor is a cruel weapon. Because it is it has embedded again fear in Big Law.  There is the Machiavellian fundamental that it is better to be feared than loved. I discuss this in Substack. Scared by the uncertainty? Special expertise with transitions, reskilling and startups. Complimentary consultation with Intuitive Coach Jane Genova (Text 203-468-8579, janegenova374@gmail.com).

M&A Wakes Up from Too-Long Slumber - Big Law Could Be Off to Another Record Year

  Bad news sells. Legal media had been busy warning, like a Greek Chorus, how demand for Big Law services could be in decline for 2025. The record revenue and Profit Per Equity Partner of 2024 wouldn't be replicated. Instead, a key driver of revenue - M&A - has bounced back. The deals include the planned Verizon acquisition of Frontier and Cox's merger with Charter Communications. Among the law firms in the loop are Latham, Wachtell, Cravath, Debevoise, Paul Weiss and Skadden.  Obviously the controversial deals law firms such as Latham and Paul Weiss made with the Trump administration hasn't derailed their business development.  While this is good news for large law firms it eventually could worsen the recession in knowledge work. The hoped-for synergies created usually slash manpower demands. The new entity, for example, only requires one investor relations function.  It had been the consolidations in the late 1980s, orchestrated by corporate leaders such as GE'...