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  Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Index: DJI Compare 52,178.54 USD ▲ +302.43 (+0.58%) today

The auto industry created the middle class in America. Not only did ordinary factory workers get to buy their own homes in the urban Midwest. Many purchased getaway cottages "up north."  That dates back to Henry Ford. His Model-T, which rolled out in 1908, did two things, at least. It created a large number of production jobs. And since the pay was $5 daily for eight hours, the labor force went beyond survival to being the new consumer class. Now, like other sectors such as much of professional services and tech, the auto industry is slated to shrink. CNBC  details how by 2040 auto sales could decline by 2 million units. What's driving that, found Bain and Company, includes:  "Falling birth rates, behavioral changes, high car prices and a growing array of alternatives ..." Of course, already we're seeing signs of that.  Actually since the dawn of the digital age, fewer kids were getting their driving licenses or putting that off for years. They preferred vi...

  Timing is almost everything. And, as a former communications pro, I assess that law firm Paul, Weiss has decided the timing is right to again be telling its story.  After the perfect storm of multiple controversies, Paul, Weiss went low profile. That's a fundamental of crisis communications management.  Then came the James Sprayregen development. A mega star in bankruptcy at Kirkland & Ellis - a major Paul, Weiss competitor - he retired in 2024 and went on to Hilco Global.  The media story was positioned and packaged to have legs. First was the announcement that Paul, Weiss and the dazzling twinkler were talking. Then, yesyesyes, the deal was done.  Immediately that's been leveraged. Financial Times publishes an interview with Sprayregen. Re-opening is the law-firm's willingness to be a story. This move resonates in Big Law. Way back in 2021, celebrity lawyer at Paul, Wess Brad Karp told Bloomberg Law  that the sector operates on star power.  Ma...

  For Boomers and Gens X,Y the "it's always something" more and more is about housing. About a third of us are "housing cost burdened," that is, we're paying out more than one-third of our income for shelter.  No one really gets off the hook, at least not for long.  Thought it was smart to hold on to your low-mortgage house? Yeah, now it's time to put on a new roof and cough up the increasing insurance. Figured you were mighty clever to relocate from HCOL (high cost of living) area to a LCOL (low cost of living) one. I did that and the corporate owners kept raising the rent plenty at lease-renewal times. Low cost was no longer low cost. Maybe as a public service The New York Times  has published a very long-form article on home-sharing. Essentially that means renting space, sometimes also adding services such as lawn mowing, in someone else's house. An industry is sprouting up providing a matching service. But even the enthusiastic coverage of this ...

A lot of media fanfare took place just before Leon Black's appearance in front of the House Oversight Committee. In the gym where I was working out, the television cameras panned on Representative James Comer entering the room. Great staging for a politico. That appearance turned out to be short and lot of media fanfare has been unleashed to explain why. For example, The Guardian reports: "Billionaire financier Leon Black’s testimony before a House committee investigating Jeffrey Epstein ended abruptly on Friday morning after members from both parties said Black refused to answer questions about non-disclosure agreements." Black will probably be back to appear before the Committee and the media will be again in a frenzy. Just as happened and been sustained with all that litigation involving women, against him and filed by him. Also, it was well noted that in a BusinessInsider interview in 2022, Paul, Weiss partner Brad Karp indicated Black was no longer a client of the...

The standard argument against unionizing non-equity-partners in large law firms was this: Most don't stay long enough to have the incentive to organize for compensation, terms and conditions of billable hours, job security, termination processes and more. That hesitation has held on even though professionals at a branch of Wells Fargo had formed a union. So much for the idea of knowledge work not being a fit for collective action.   Well, in the past few years enough has changed in large law firms to try out unionizing. The developments include creation of the Nonequity Partnership, the impact of AI on decline in demand for junior lawyers and the increase in demand for experienced ones and the need for most large firms to overhaul their systems and structure. About the latter, they have to come up with  a new model anyway so unions could be part of that. As is well-known, the NEP designation works well for equity partners. The model yields multi-dimensional benefits for...

1) I am not a Nepo Baby. And 2) I know you never know what goes on behind closed doors. So, I am clueless if parents of Nepo Babies merit the harsh punishment or embittered portrayal sometimes heaped on them by offspring.  Nick Reiner is accused of murdering his entertainment sector parents. Brooklyn Beckham claims mum and dad attempted to taint his name. And last year Molly Jong-Fast gave us the details of her mother Erica Jong's lifestyle and dementia that perhaps even her critics found to be disclosed in bad taste. That's in the memoir "How To Lose Your Mother."  Maybe it's all the dirt in the book and/or maybe it's well-written, but it continues to rank high on Amazon - 32,003. Those in the Westport, Connecticut region (where I attended a support group) likely are aware that Erica had a drinking problem. But what purpose was served to find out how, like a baby, she hung out in bed sucking on the bottle? There she lay, disconnected from her fat daughter wh...

Parts of southern Arizona used to be frugal paradise.  For example, a 440-square-foot efficiency at Vista Montana , Tucson went for $400 a month. That was spring 2014. There was no cost for water, sewer and trash. The heat was bearable and the electricity for the air-conditioning in the summer was nothing you would notice. Just the usual. Now, that same studio apartment is listed at $732 to $747. Now, add on water, sewer and trash which could be $55 to $65 per month. I asked ChatGPT what the average electricity bill would be during a summer month as hot as this one. The estimate ranges from $60 to $160. If the air-conditioning unit is old it could be inefficient, driving up cost. Have pets? You might have to keep the air-conditioning on-high. Currently, LCOL remains a reality, though, throughout pockets of the midwest. However, that kind of relocation may for you lack the adventure and glam of going to AZ.  Locations in Texas, not including sophisticated urban areas such as Da...

  Most of the time we worry about a crash. No, not a correction. We can handle 10% to 20% down. A crash could mean down 40%+. But the Dow is going our way today. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Index: DJI Compare 52,149.06 USD ▲ +482.22 (+0.93%) today June 24, 12:29 PM EDT · Market Open

  "Democratic socialists just caused a political earthquake. Now they’re coming for 2028." Various versions of that Politico meme appear throughout media, social and ordinary conversations. The New York House primaries yesterday showcased the shift in the mindset of America. It's away from capitalism (employers overplayed their hands), old-guard liberal leadership, Israel and MAGA. Soon enough, major players such as Big Law will have to put their money where the power is landing. OpenSecrets  tracks and publishes those donations to politics, including the two major political parties as well as other groups such as "nonpartisan." Kirkland & Ellis and Paul, Weiss have been among the major law-firm contributors. The heavy hitters, either as individual contributors and/or fundraisers, include lawyers Brad Karp, Marc Elias, David Boies and John Morgan.  Now, experiencing the earthquake vibes, OpenSecrets might have to add a new category for where the money is g...

  When I coached former Kirkland & Ellis employees a constant meme was the reverence for partner James Sprayregen. He had built the firm's powerhouse bankruptcy practice, including advising clients ranging from Toys R Us to Caesars Entertainment. One snippet was that when he walked into the country club for dinner a hush settled over the room. That was then. In 2024 he retired from K&E. Then, as FT reports: "Sprayregen joined Hilco Global, a bankruptcy adviser and distressed investor, as vice-chair charged with expanding its reach into new markets and areas as well as raising new capital. Last year, Hilco announced a minority investment from the US arm of Japanese financial services group Orix." In addition, FT also reports this today: Paul, Weiss, an intense competitor with K&E, plans to hire Sprayregen. However, that's still in the negotiation phase. On the Paul, Weiss website he is not yet listed as a partner.  If this actually happens, it seems somew...

 What it takes to oversee bots, no right to disconnect, client demands, especially in professional services such as law, startup culture and working multiple jobs. Here we are in what The Atlantic calls "The Infinite Workweek." Collapsing before its 100th anniversary is the concept of The Weekend.  When is the last time anyone has asked you, "What are you doing this weekend?" They know: You'll be working, some or most or all of the time. The euphoria building Friday afternoon - TGIF - as employees anticipated two days off will fade as among the emotional sets of a labor force. Some date the introduction of The Weekend to 1934, in Nottingham, England.  Chair of the Boots Corporation John Boot had achieved such efficiency gains that too much inventory was being produced. The solution he hit upon was to limit production to five days a week. But he kept the worker pay the same. Maybe that progressive measure was implemented because Boot noticed the workforce came i...

  Molly Jong-Fast does a comprehensive job of capturing how fame took control of her mother author Erica Jong. In memoir "How You Lose Your Mother," she gets down cold how mom could never unfame, even after the name recognition petered out.  In real time we might be bearing witness to how that curse might have overtaken visibly aging Bob Iger. He did extend the shelf life of extreme visibility by getting back the CEO job for a second time. But now out, he, as  FT notes, seems to be struggling to stay on the radar.  Meanwhile Barack Obama, Paul McCartney and already-over JD Vance have been busy with the objective of remaining in the current collective consciousness.  Innovative plaintiff law firms such as Motley Rice might file a public nuisance lawsuit on behalf of a society burdened with hangers-on.  But the good news is that there are those who manage to escape the curse. They leveraged fame to achieve noble or commercial goals and then were able to let ...

  In the US market, there's still the residue of controversy sticking to the Paul, Weiss brand. But no sign of that in the London market. That's a powerhouse operation that current partner/former chair Brad Karp helped build. Although that law firm had been in London since 2001, it was a small operation. Only recently did Karp, along with now current chair Scott Barshay, start paying serious attention to it.  Who, for example, in the legal sector doesn't recall that shock and awe Paul, Weiss  poaching of talent from Kirkland & Ellis' London office back in August and September 2023.  Now, as LawFuel documents, the raiding has become broader:  "Paul Weiss is the firm everyone else has been losing partners to. Since summer 2024 it has hired more than 20 partners from rivals, eleven of them from Kirkland, four from Linklaters and three from Clifford Chance ..." So dominant a presence Paul, Weiss has developed in the London legal scene that it's now consid...

Forget camp to improve tennis or violin skills. The kid isn't going to backpack through Europe. And no do-gooding in volunteer whatever. Ambitious parents, most of them upper-income, have their offspring get paid jobs during college and even high school. They have gotten the memo that paid work on resumes, no matter how menial such as cleaning pools or scooping ice cream, significantly increases the odds of being hired post-graduation. That's what employers want to see on a resume. Sure, good grades still count. But not as much as once assumed. And that assumption was always faulty any way. Unless the family was directing the kid to an elite law, medical or business school. On those kinds of career paths grades, along with performance on standardized tests, are the great deciders.  None of this about the power of paid work is new. That is, that real world work experience in high school and college predicts sustained success later on.  When I was a first-generation college c...

  We legal watchers always wondered why Williams & Connolly didn't use some version of the insanity defense on behalf of tech founder Elizabeth Holmes. After all, the tactics she leveraged to conceal a failing startup were, well, nutty. Had some type of mental aberration been explained to the jurors Holmes might have gotten off with less than the 135 month/$135 million payback sentence . Less promising seems the "extreme mental disturbance" strategy for Luigi Mangione, created by the law firm Agnifilo Intrater. Essentially the argument is that at the time of the alleged shooting of United Healthcare executive Brian Thompson the defendant was experiencing a mental breakdown. However, what seems obvious - premeditation and careful logistics including for a getaway - make proving that seem quite difficult. The guy appeared to be very much in control. Another reason that legal move might not be effective is the high level of stress in current society. Who among us doesn...

It's nothing new. Law firms chase star talent and pay premium compensation for those twinklers. Way back in 2021, Paul, Weiss' Brad Karp hammered in Bloomberg Law  the critical importance of that star power. Law firms which don't have the financial resources to recruit, hold and motivate them could stop growing, going out of business.  What is new are these current realities: the current frenzy of the chase and annual compensation reaching $40 million.  Well, equity partners who aren't stars will help pay for that payout. Law.com  predicts haircuts for some of them this year. There always had been a caste system in Big Law, a niche in which prestige is an embedded value. Never were all equity partners equal. It had been standard to de-equitize those not cutting it or even force them out. A strategy of shaming usually was effective to get them to exit.  Now, it's more brutal. Already the number of equity partners is being reduced. That's to ensure top dollar fo...

  Boomers remember that era before air-conditioning became standard . There were times when even in our capitalist max-productivity system it was too hot to work. At a Pennsylvania college - Seton Hill in rural Pennsylvania - the president gave all employees the day off.  By midcentury, projects the Union of Concerned Scientists , that could happen on a regular basis. About 32 million outdoor workers could lose out on $55 billion each year in wages. (College staff didn't lose pay.) Those out-of-work could range from landscapers to construction crews to farm laborers to those Manhattan dog walkers.  So, labor markets are not only being reconfigured by AI, extreme cost-efficiency and the end of management as we've known it. There are the implications of what some believe to be climate change. Yet, in coaching more and more clients tell me that "I want to work outside." A nation tires of The Box, that is, the office. Let's get outside, move around. In addition to wo...

  Unless Congress takes action, the Social Security Trust Fund has been projected to be depleted.  On June 6th of this year, the Social Security Administration estimated that would occur during Q4 of 2032. The monthly payment would be reduced to 83% of the usual. By 2021, that would drop to 65%. Well, there may be a bit of a stay of execution on that. CNBC reports that the Penn Wharton Budget Model came up with a different estimate. Here is that model. According to PWBM, the depletion won't occur until February 2034, with 86% payable. By 2021, that would plummet to 60%. However, lots could happen before February 2034. For the better or for the worse. A significant variable is how effectively those concerned about Social Security lobby Congress.  In coaching, I guide clients on how to live below their income in order to sock away more for retirement. Given increasing longevity that could go on for 30 years. Careers? So Over. It’s about Earning a Good Living. No matt...

  The last time China released numbers about  youth joblessness they were over 20%. That was 2023. No numbers have been made public since. I guess we should assume things have not improved.  Perhaps it's in response to concern over jobless youths (a revolution could be brewing) that China is pulling back on the liberal arts in higher education.  For example: "The Communication University of China in Beijing ... cut five undergraduate degrees last year, including photography, comics, visual communication design, new media art and fashion design ... Fudan University is also slashing liberal arts enrollment from 30-40% of total enrollment to 20%."  The push is toward AI training.  But, as we know from the US, AI skills might not necessarily be the ticket for gaining access to entry-level jobs Employers are going for experience, not untested skills and enthusiasm. Those AI natives in the Class of 2026 might not, it is turning out, have an edge. Time will tell i...

Right now, at least. You don't have to be rich to feel financially safe. That is if you had invested in the stock market. If you did that you probably also have a reserve in your checking account. All that is enough for psychological well-being in these crazy times. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Index: DJI Compare 51,885.44 USD ▲ +214.41 (+0.41%) today June 16, 9:57 AM EDT · Market Open  

Those whose professional lives have been irreversibly damaged by association with manipulative Jeffrey Epstein can feel satisfied that he too suffered. The New York Times article by Charles Homas, et al. documents his despondent state when imprisoned. It was enough for the system to provide attention to his mental health. Also, as Homas reports: "Robert Adams, an M.C.C. guard at the time, thought Epstein seemed like 'a lion taken out of the jungle and put in a cage.'”  However, that extensive bit of investigative work likely hasn't convinced many that Epstein's death was a suicide. Many of the comments responding to the article push back on that conclusion. They go with the theory that Epstein simply was a man who knew too much. Much of the disagreement with the Times argument comes from its reliance on what inmates say. How credible is that kind of input.  As a result, it's now obvious that in the realm of conspiracy whatevers the world has "Another Kenn...

  What's become sticky are the blubs about great towns/cities to live which are affordable. They mention the quaint downtowns, outdoors activities and friendly neighbors. But, one category remains blank: availability of top-of-the line healthcare, including access to specialists.  The good news, which turns up when you research, is this: There are locations which embed both: LCOL (low cost of living) and highly ranked healthcare, especially for specialties such as cardiology, orthopedics, memory, psychiatry and physical therapy, along with access to primary care. Toledo, Ohio is among them. The Wall Street Journal documents that the medium price for a single-family house is $235k. In addition, a  685-square-foot apartment rents for $685, covering water, sewer, trash, gas, heat and air-conditioning. In that particular complex - Cambridge Woods on the Southside - rents didn't go up this year at lease-renewal time. The healthcare infrastructure is one of abundance: Cleveland...

  A daily habit among the aging, both Boomers and Gen Xers, is monitoring the Dow in real time, along with Futures if we stay up late. That's happening even if we had been purpose-driven workers, not consumed with salary, perks and maxing retirement-account contributions.  With Futures in the 400s - positive - last night, we slept soundly. Today, joy overtakes as the market opens at: Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Index: DJI Compare 51,813.93 USD ▲ +611.67 (+1.19%) today June 15, 9:31 AM EDT   No ambiguity. Our perspective is narrow. Essentially it's one-dimensional about our money. Yes, we are also concerned about other issues. But that can remain primarily limited to how world events and domestic whatevers impact our money.  See, longevity - and its keeps getting longer - is what's boxing us in. Clint Eastwood is in his late 90s. So is Dick Van Dyke. Gene Shalit made it to 100. Betty White almost got to that point. Meanwhile, Leslie Stahl still has a big job a...