Prediction Markets - Just a New Wrinkle for Betting on Legal Outcomes

 Thanks to the creation of platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi it's now possible to bet on the outcome of jury trials. The Wall Street Journal reports on the wagering for the Lindsay Clancy murder trial. Of course, that generates plenty of issues about ethics, insider-trading kind of sharing of information among family members and the integrity of the whole justice system.

But, the reality is that prediction markets are only a new wrinkle on the almost infinite type of betting that takes place in the legal sector.

For example, I recall an article by David Sanford of Sanford Heisler explaining the criteria for the law firm's accepting a case. That's about betting that it could achieve a positive outcome. Sure, the firm tends to be altruistic. But come on, it's a business. In addition, the firm has a branding for wins to protect. 

Some may recall how much had been at stake in 2011 when the class action "concussion" lawsuit was filed against the NFL. 

Should broadcasters stop betting so much on increasing game revenue? 

Hey, what about the risk involved in advertising during the Super Bowl? 

Are college football players going to have reduced opportunity?

Had there not been the landmark settlement, put together by Paul, Weiss partner Brad Karp, that whole sports commercial continuum could have withered. The settlement was reached in 2013 and became effective in 2017. Yes, Karp saved the game. He still represents the NFL. And, Super Bowl Sunday remains a national holiday. 

Another example. Litigation funding. Of course, it's is a form of betting. Investors analyze all the variables, ranging from precedent to venue/judge, to calculate their shot at a windfall. In "Hulk Hogan v Gawker," the wager by funder Peter Thiel was more about being able to penalize that kind of tabloid journalism than personal monetary gain. The guy is a billionaire.

Meanwhile, though, the betting associated with jury trials is electric. Litigation itself is a wild card. This motion or that motion can change the odds radically. I doubt if society can unbundle it from gambling. If there's no longer a prediction-markets platform, it will go underground.

In my intuitive coaching/tarot reading, I guide clients to accept human nature as it is. Not how they want it to be. Life is hard and often boring. Betting delivers hope, excitement and more.

Careers. Forget all that. It’s about earning a good living, no matter what. Intuitive coaching and, upon request, tarot readings.

Complimentary consultation with Jane Genova, StreetSmart Coaching (janegenova374@gmail.com)


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